Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
